In China, 250,000,000 SARS-CoV-2  infections (estimated) in December 2022.

Each infected person carries an estimated 1–100 billion virions during peak infection. Source.

Assuming minimum 1 billion virions per person in 250 million people = 250 Quintillion virions (19 zeros)

In China, SARS-CoV-2 virions (minimum) replicating every day:

• 250,000,000,000,000,000,000

Random evolution of SARS-CoV-2 “variants of concern” is continuous and uncontrollable, with absolute certainty. For example: the recombination between 2 variants (BJ.1 + BM.1.1.1) resulted in the current XBB Variant of Concern.

In China, in 2019, SARS-CoV-2 emerged (most likely) from zoonotic (animal) reservoir transmission.

In China: 1.4 billion people farming 442 million pigs and 4.7 billion chickens…

What could go wrong???

• China has the world’s largest pig herd, or about half of the world’s total, estimated at 442 million in 2017. Many of them – about 40% – are raised in small farms with weak hygiene standards. There are still relatively few integrated producers, with most farmers relying on other people in a long supply chain to get their pigs to slaughter, often far away from their farms. Source: Reuters
• CDC. Susceptibility of Domestic Swine to Experimental Infection with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 

Learn more:

• NATURE. EDITORIAL. 23 December 2022. There’s no room for COVID complacency in 2023. Models suggest China could see up to one million deaths in 2023.
• CDC COVID DATA TRACKER. Monitoring Variant Proportions: 9/18/2022 – 12/24/2022
• Bloomberg Reports the tsunami of Covid-19 that’s taking hold across China is spurring concern that a dangerous new virus variant could emerge for the first time in more than a year, just as genetic sequencing to catch such a threat is dwindling.
• The Financial Times Reports that internal modelling estimates 250 million people – a fifth of the population – caught Covid in the first 20 days of December 2022.
• GROUND TRUTHS. REPORT. DR ERIC TOPOL. Dec 23. A new variant alert The XBB.1.5 variant is on a growth spurt in the United States 
• VIEWPOINT. Dangerous, Continuous, Uncontrollable Global Evolution of Multiple SARS-CoV-2 “Variants of Concern” Toward Immune Escape with Unpredictable Long-term Consequences…
• Preparing for Emerging Zoonotic Viruses (2021)
• Associated Press Reports China’s COVID-19 surge raises odds of new coronavirus mutant
• Bird Flu? 4.7 billion chickens living in China. Source: Statista

One Variant Evolution Mechanism; Template Switching.

When a virus copies itself, it can ‘template switch’ between different genomes floating around. If those are all the same, the end product isn’t different. But if distinct lineages are there at the same time, we can spot these ‘chimera’ children – recombinants. Source: Dr. Emma Hodcroft

Variant Evolution Example; The XBB recombinant.

Variant Evolution over Time leads to Variant Diversity